The Historic Fraud Blizzard of 2025
Ask any Midwesterner over the age of 50, and they’ll tell you all about what they endured over a 3-day span in January 1978, when one of the most severe blizzards in U.S. history swept through the region. The storm dumped over 30 inches of snowfall in parts of Michigan and Ohio, with wind chill temperatures reaching -50 degrees in Indiana. It’s shared lore for anyone who was alive at the time, and anyone who wasn’t has been inundated with stories every time the temperature dips below freezing.
Like Midwesterners, fraud professionals are used to brutal winters – it’s when the most intense attacks of the year are expected, and where defenses must be at their best. But this year, there’s another blizzard brewing in the dark corners of the internet, looking to rival the most notable winter storms. Fraudsters have spent the past year perfecting advanced attack strategies and testing the limits of their targets’ fraud stacks, setting the stage for a fraud flurry of epic proportions that could leave even the most prepared businesses out in the cold.
Fraudsters’ Holiday Traditions
Winter is the peak of digital activity. Cooler temperatures bring consumers indoors and online, and holiday shopping creates an influx of online payments and data sharing. Digital businesses lean into the lucrative potential of winter and often relax their fraud controls to open the door for new users.
For fraudsters, this is the most wonderful time of the year. They take every opportunity they can to exploit businesses’ relaxed defenses and leave with ill-begotten holiday bonuses of their own. Winter ends up being fraudsters’ most active season even beyond the holidays: NeuroID’s seasonal trend analysis found that in January, attack rates are 78% above average – the highest of any month – with attacks lasting 59% longer.
The winter fraud surge is a widely recognized phenomenon among fraud leaders, and one that creates an annual dilemma: go all-in on growth during high-traffic months, or tighten defenses to stop fraud? Either winter approach can have a snowball effect that makes or breaks a businesses’ year: successfully and securely welcoming new customers can boost revenue long-term, but failing to stop fraud attacks can still be impacting business and fraud teams long after the snow melts. This is an especially great time of year for dormant fraud to sneak in and bide its time for larger scale attacks.
2025’s Brutal Wintry Mix
The annual winter fraud spike is expected, but this year’s conditions are especially conducive to a massive fraud storm.
All year, we’ve been warning about the danger of GenAI-powered fraud. GenAI has enabled the creation of hyper-sophisticated, scalable fraud tools that upend traditional fraud detection strategies. We’ve watched as fraudsters adopt next-generation bots and other advanced fraud tools, bringing about a new age of fraud attacks. Early 2024 laid the groundwork for more intense, targeted attacks; the following months, including the typically slower summer, brought a tidal wave of fraud driven by sophisticated bots: this June, attacks nearly tripled in size and duration compared to June 2023.
For months, fraudsters have been fine-tuning their attacks and taking advantage of businesses who aren’t prepared to stop them. As fraudsters’ most fruitful season rolls in, there’s no reason to believe that these attack strategies won’t be fully unleashed – or may already be in progress.
Don’t Be Frostbitten by Fraudsters
The great blizzard of 1978 forced cities and states to step-up their winter weather preparedness, and this season’s attacks could do the same for businesses and their fraud stacks. In addition to stopping next-generation bots and other forms of GenAI-powered fraud, a winter-ready fraud mitigation strategy must be able to spot attack indicators and stop fraudsters before they can cause damage. Visibility into crowd-level behavior – and real-time decisioning off behavioral signals – is key in the harsh winter conditions.
For more on winter’s fraud trends and what to expect throughout the rest of the year, download The Fraudster’s Almanac: Your Guide to Preparing for Seasonal Attack Patterns.
